Episode 1275: Collapses and Surges
Date September 27, 2018 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Willians Astudillo, Chris Davis and Khris Davis, the end of a Clayton Kershaw streak, Jacob deGrom, the ever-changing NL playoff race, the rapid spread of the opener, Joe Maddon’s comments about Addison Russell, and the worst team collapses of 2018, then answer listener emails about the Cubs’ offense and the most surprising division race, Bryce Harper’s bad defense, intentionally deflecting pickoff throws, the relievers with the most wins after blown saves, and the worst 2018 lineup that could be constructed out of former All-Stars, plus a Stat Blast about the biggest single-season differences between a hitter’s high- and low-leverage performances. Topics * The Cubs offense * Joe Maddons comments * Will we see opener in playoffs? * Bryce Harper * Breaking up a pickoff * Relievers with blown saves * Former all star, bad now Intro Buffalo Springfield, "Down to the Wire" Outro The Kinks, "Close to the Wire" Banter * Willians Astudillo * Jacob DeGrom * Streaks of the year * The two C(K)hris Davis’ * Biggest collapse of season * White Sox using an opener Email Questions * David (Patreon): I found myself in an internet argument (I should always avoid them) and he claims that the Cubs offensive woes this season and decline in home runs can be blamed on Chili Davis' philosophy of contact and opposite field hits. He pointed to Boston's offensive resurgence this season as them removing Chili from the equation. He cited Wilson Contreras, Ian Happ, Albert Almora, and Addison Russell, all who increased in ground ball percentage and opposite field hits as evidence of their regression. While the numbers seem to him on Fangraphs, I found Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo didn't seem to change substantially. I also stated that a single season sample is dubious at best and especially since home runs as a whole is down significantly this season compared to last season. I guess my question is the following: Did the Cubs offense change significantly from last season to this season? Could the offensive change be attributed to more contact, more groundballs, and more opposite field hits as opposed to hitting dingers? Or did the home run decline muddy the waters? My second question: Which would be more surprising to the two of you, considering the start of the season: the Dodgers possibly losing to the Rockies in the NL West or the Cubs possibly losing to the Brewers in the NL Central? * Joe: Bryce Harper has hovered between -0.9, and +1.5 dWAR as defined by BBREF throughout his career. This year, he is at a -3.2 dWAR. He's also at a -26 Rfield, which I think is BBREF's version similar to Fangraphs DRS. This seems very low. Like, REALLY low. Is this an historically poor defensive season we are seeing for Mr.Soon-To-Be-Super-Rich-Guy-Probably Bryce Harper? * Cody: In the linked video, Mike Moustakas gets in the way of a pick-off throw and the resulting carom allows Eric Thames to score from home. My hypothetical is this: What if a player intentionally dove at pick-off throws with the intention of headbutting the ball out of play? Would this be the same as the pitcher throwing the ball directly out of play and allowing all runners to advance? How many times could a player do this before pitchers stopped trying to pick him off? Do you think anyone could successfully headbutt the ball out of play without taking one to the face? * Justin: I’m just wondering which reliever has the most wins after blowing a save in a single season? All time? * Daniel (Arlington, VA): On Tuesday night (9/11) the Indians started a lineup consisting entirely of players who have been named to at least one all-star team, apparently for the first time in at least 20 years. Despite this, they were held to two runs by the Rays pitching staff and in general are probably not in the top five playoff favorites. My question is, what would be the worst possible lineup you could make consisting entirely of all-stars? Lindor, Brantley, Ramirez, Encarnacion, Donaldson, Alonso, Melky, Kipnis C: Jonathan Lucroy 1B: Chris Davis: DH: Victor Martinez SS: Alcides Escobar 2B: Eduardo Nunez 3B: Jose Reyes LF: Ian Desmond CF: Dexter Fowler RF: Hunter Pence Stat Blast * Kyle Schwarber has batted 56 times in high leverage situations, and has a wRC+ of -62, and has a wRC+ of 137 in other situations. * Khris Davis has a wRC+ 227 in high leverage situations, which is 103 points more than the other situations. * 2009 Ryan Howard had a 303 wRC+ in high leverage situations, 180 points higher than other situations, which is the biggest difference on record. Notes * Joe Maddon said “anyone can write a blog post” on a Chicago radio station about the Addison Russell abuse allegations. * Brewers used a one out opener. * The Diamondbacks have gone 9 and 22 since August 22nd. Links https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/effectively-wild-episode-1275-collapses-and-surges/ Link to Dan Hayes article on Astudillo Link to Ben’s article about Kershaw’s streak Link to article about the Brewers’ one-out opener Link to Jeff’s post about Schwarber Link to Moustakas pickoff play Link to Effectively Wild crossword puzzle Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes